Article Modeling the distribution of Vachellia tortilis (forssk.) in Tunisian drylands

Jamila Msadek; Farah Chouikhi; Mohamed Tarhouni

doi:10.56027/JOASD.082026

Authors

Jamila Msadek Laboratory of Pastoral Ecosystems, Spontaneous Plants and Associated Microorganisms. Arid Regions Institute - Medenine 4100. University of Gabes, Tunisia.
Farah Chouikhi Laboratory of Economy and Rural Societies. Arid Regions Institute - Medenine 4100. University of Gabes, Tunisia.
Mohamed Tarhouni Laboratory of Pastoral Ecosystems, Spontaneous Plants and Associated Microorganisms. Arid Regions Institute - Medenine 4100. University of Gabes, Tunisia.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56027/JOASD.082026

Keywords:

Conservation, habitat, MaxEnt, species distributions, plant models

Abstract

Biodiversity conservation, through the creation of national parks, is generally helping to maintain a greater level of resilience within ecosystems and to protect the natural plant cover and threatened plant species. This research was conducted in Bou Hedma National Park, a UNESCO-MAB biosphere reserve containing the unique Vachellia tortilis (Forssk.) Gallaso & Banfi steppe with trees in Tunisia. The focus is to explore how the distribution of suitable habitat for V. tortilis might shift under climate change scenarios using the MaxEnt modeling algorithm. The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) was used for projecting the future distribution. The model was run under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245, SSP585) during four time periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). The tested climate change scenarios seem to be affecting the species’ suitable habitat in the park. Three soil variables (Clay, Coarse, WRB Classes) are significant factors in determining V. tortilis’s suitable habitat. Distribution modeling provides valuable information for managers to implement suitable strategies to conserve this endemic, rare, and threatened plant tree and the overall ecosystem.

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